Albertine Rift

Modeling Climate Changes

WCS was supported by the MacArthur Foundation to assess how global climate change was likely to affect the Albertine Rift region.  Anton Seimon and Guy Picton-Phillipps led this assessment and produced a couple of white papers and created a web site giving the results of this assessment.

In summary,  the findings of climate modeling  (white paper 1) up to the end of this century show that temperature is likely to increase relatively uniformly across the Albertine Rift and that rainfall will increase over much of the rift except in the south (southern half of Lake Tanganyika) where it will decrease.  Much of the predicted increase in rainfall (up to 17% increase by end of this century) will occur during the two wet seasons of the year that exist across most of the Albertine Rift , particularly during the September-November wet season. This is likely to increase the chances of flash-flooding and erosion.  By the end of the century global climate change will lead to a 3.6oC rise in temperature which would translate to a 600-720m displacement in altitude for most species that are thermally intolerant.  Crops that are traditionally grown in the region, beans, maize and pasture grasses for cattle, will likely not yield as much as they do now and there will be a need to select for more tolerant strains or change staple crops over time (White paper 2).

 

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Contact

Albertine Rift Program
Plot 802 Kiwafu Rd, Kansanga, PO Box 7487, Kampala, Uganda
+256772509754

Partners Include

The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation